Polls show Ford and the PCs dominating on top voter issues

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In the final week, Doug Ford’s PC Party seems assured of victory in Thursday’s election. Not that he or his team are taking anything for granted.

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Ford spent the weekend touring Thunder Bay, Timmins, Cochrane, Sault Ste. Marie and Sudbury just after returning from making Ontario’s case again in Washington.

In this unique political climate, the uncertainty with the United States, that is where Ford appears to have the edge. In the face of Donald Trump’s tariff threats, and a lack of leadership in Ottawa, voters feel they can trust Ford to look after them — at least that’s what the polling shows.

A Leger poll for Postmedia released this past week showed 48% of decided voters plan to back Ford and his PC Party, 28% say they will support Bonnie Crombie and the Liberals, 16% say they’ll cast ballots for  Marit Stiles and the NDP and 5% favour Mike Schreiner and the Greens. While other polls give Ford a smaller lead and some put the NDP higher, all give Ford a substantial lead and clearly enough support to win a third, and possibly bigger, majority government.

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Why are we in this state?

When asked which leader is best equipped to deal with Donald Trump and defend “Ontario’s interests from aggressive U.S. trade and economic policies,” 45% said Ford. Just 13% picked Crombie, while 7% supported Stiles and 2% favoured Schreiner. The poll found 32% didn’t know which is more than the three opposition leaders combined.

A poll taken a few days later by Ipsos found similar results,

Simply put, Ford is seen as the best positioned leader to take on Trump and his policies and to stand up for Ontario’s interests inside Canada at a time of federal uncertainty. Even on health care, often cited as one of the most important issues, Leger has Ford leading — though barely — Crombie and Stiles on this issue, while Ipsos has Ford a bit behind but competitive.

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Ford is also seen as best positioned to look after Ontario’s economy, to expand infrastructure and deal with crime.

When a party and its leader is dominating on the number one issue, that party generally wins the election. Ford and the PCs are dominating on all the top issues, which is why you are seeing such a strong lead.

There is dissatisfaction with the state of health care in Ontario, which is why Crombie and the Liberals were smart to make that a focus of the campaign. Her constant pledge to get you a family doctor and noting problems of hallway medicine will resonate with some voters.

That said, she may not have enough time to really take advantage of that issue. It’s also an issue that while the public is concerned, they don’t see any party as having a clear advantage.

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As for Stiles and the NDP, they have squandered their advantage of being the Official Opposition, having the spotlight in the legislature and having the staff and funding that goes with that. There should be no question that they would at the least remain in second place or be the party challenging Ford for power, which clearly isn’t happening.

The NDP’s hope this week is to focus on ensuring they keep the ridings they have now in Ottawa, Hamilton, Durham, Niagara and Windsor. NDP support is concentrated in key areas, which means, if they can pull close to the Liberals, they can still keep their status as the Official Opposition.

One thing is clear: This election is Doug Ford’s to lose. Crombie and Stiles are simply fighting for second place.

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