Reports say that President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have agreed to a mineral rights deal, and Zelenskyy is expected to travel to Washington, D.C., this week to sign it.
As corrupt and disgusting as Trump’s extortion has been, this could be Ukraine’s best bet to win the war.
Two weeks ago, I wrote about Trump’s demand that Ukraine give away $500 billion in mineral rights in exchange for continued American support in its war against Russia. In fact, I said it was a good idea for Ukraine to cave to Trump for several reasons:
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Ukraine has an estimated $15 trillion in mineral reserves, and $500 billion—so long as it buys significant military aid—is worth the price of freedom and victory.
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The vast majority of this mineral wealth currently lies in Russian-occupied Ukraine. In fact, it’s a chief reason Russia invaded.
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Trump is a crook. The next administration is free to renegotiate or tear up the agreement if it’s in any way a hindrance to Ukraine’s development.
This whole affair is bizarre. Trump and Zelenskyy have been at each other’s throats while our fascist president spread misinformation about Ukraine, called Zelenskyy a dictator, refused to do so when talking about Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, had his people meet with Russian negotiators in Saudi Arabia last week, and even shamefully voted with rogue states like North Korea against a United Nations resolution condemning Russia for its invasion of Ukraine at the war’s three-year anniversary. (Even stalwart Russian ally, China, abstained.)
As for the mineral rights deal, we don’t know many of the details. Apparently, Trump dropped his $500 billion asking price, and Ukraine didn’t get the security guarantees they wanted (i.e., NATO membership). Also, there doesn’t appear to be a specific promise of new American weapons and aid.
But if Trump wants some of those minerals, those Russian-occupied lands need to be liberated, and Trump said that the deal would give Ukraine “the right to fight on.” Also, when asked if American supplies to Ukraine would continue, Trump said, “Maybe until we have a deal with Russia. … We need to have a deal. Otherwise, it’s going to continue.”
Furthermore, Ukrainian aid is becoming a harder political sell in the West because of perceptions that it is charity. If it’s a “loan” to be repaid by exploiting Ukraine’s mineral wealth, then it’s a business transaction—something that won’t sell better just with American conservatives but also with Europe’s own fascist-populist right-wing, which has steadily been gaining support across the continent.
Given that Trump is Trump, he could sign this deal and then ignore it next week. No one is walking into this thing thinking Trump has abandoned his bizarre crush on Putin or that Trump wouldn’t toss this agreement aside on one of his whims. But if it allows Zelenskyy to say, “Mr. President, we’ll need some Tomahawk cruise missiles to get those mines under your control,” Trump might be crazy enough to agree—again, on a whim.
We haven’t heard the last of this drama. Heck, there might not even be a deal signed this week. It could all fall apart tomorrow if Putin flutters his lashes at Trump provocatively enough.
But if this happens and U.S. aid flows (perhaps at even an increased rate), it will be a stunning win for Zelenskyy. I would definitely read a book with the backstory.
