Carney’s team ‘feeling good’ about its chances in leadership vote

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OTTAWA — All eyes will be on Mark Carney on Sunday as the Liberal Party of Canada announces who will succeed Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

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The question is now whether the former central banker will win on the first round of votes, or if one of the three other contenders — former finance minister Chrystia Freeland, former House leader Karina Gould and former Liberal MP Frank Baylis — could muddy the waters.

A source close to Carney, speaking on background because they were not authorized to openly talk about campaign strategy, said they are “feeling good” about how the campaign went, but added that the “golden rule in politics” is to never take anything for granted.

“Our best-case scenario, of course, would be winning on first ballot,” said the source.

The 400,000 Liberal members have until Sunday, March 9, at 3 p.m. ET to cast their ballot.

It is a preferential ballot, which means that voters will rank the candidates in order of preference. If Carney were to obtain less than 50 per cent of voters’ first choices at the first round, the candidate who obtained the lowest number of first choices would be eliminated, and that person’s second choices would be distributed to other candidates. That process would continue until a candidate obtains a majority of the votes.

As of Friday, more than 125,000 Liberal members had cast their ballot — already beating the number of votes cast in the 2013 leadership race that saw Trudeau elected as leader.

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Philippe J. Fournier, creator of the poll aggregator website 338Canada, said that all available indicators, including polling, fundraising and advertising numbers, demonstrate that the Liberal leadership should indeed be an easy first ballot win for Carney, adding “unless there’s something we’re missing, which is always possible.”

Fournier said that “all logic would dictate” that Freeland finishes the race in second place, although some Liberals have been wondering if Gould might end up second instead.

As for Baylis, who was relatively unknown in the Ottawa bubble, having left politics in 2019 after serving one term as a Montreal MP, he might get some “sympathy votes” after a good performance during the debates where many members got to know him, said Fournier.

But Fournier said it would be highly unlikely that either of these three contenders, especially Gould and Baylis, manage to eke out a win against Carney.

“It would be like a pee wee team beating the Stanley Cup champions right now,” he said.

But in the final days of the vote, all campaigns have been claiming they have a chance of winning. Freeland and Gould even mused about how they would invite Carney to play a key role in their team if either of them won the leadership.

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Gould was first to come out last week to say she would invite each of her opponents to serve in her cabinet should she become leader. “We need Mark Carney when it comes to the economy. We need Chrystia Freeland when it comes to foreign affairs, and we need Frank Baylis when it comes to health,” she told reporters in Ottawa on Feb. 26.

During a media scrum in Vaughan this week, Freeland made a clear commitment to appoint Carney in the role he was reportedly supposed to replace her in before she abruptly resigned on Dec. 16, sparking a political crisis causing Trudeau to leave.

“I intend to win on Sunday, and when I win, I will invite Mark to serve as finance minister in my government. I think we’ll make a great team,” she said.

From the start, Carney has been waging a frontrunner campaign. His campaign took out a $150,000 loan according to Elections Canada data, so he could start crisscrossing the country right away. He has since raised millions in donations in a matter of a few weeks.

The former governor of the Bank of Canada and England has exuded confidence in his capacity to serve as prime minister of Canada, claiming he has had “many jobs” where he “came in at the top” despite having never been elected in public office before.

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The transition from Carney speaking to C-suite boards to facing scrutiny as a potential future prime minister has been rocky at times, and his team recognized that there was “definitely a sharp learning curve” in teaching him to give brief, concise answers.

He also benefitted from a crash course in retail politics from Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne, who supports Carney as leader, at the start of the race.

“I don’t think he can say anymore that he’s not a politician,” said a source close to him.

Freeland’s team believes that Carney benefitted from the fact that the leadership race was so short. And even before the debates, her campaign was stating it was “very aware” that the road ahead would be bumpy to make sure she becomes the next leader.

The former finance minister has touted herself as a “battle-tested, proven political leader” who already has a seat in the House of Commons and who has the experience and the “guts” to stand up for Canada against U.S. President Donald Trump.

A source close to Freeland said she can count in the Liberal leadership race on supporters who are “fiercely loyal” to her: Ukrainians in the Prairies, voters in rural Quebec, women and, lastly, pro-democracy groups with links to Venezuela, Hong Kong or Taiwan who see her as a “champion for democracy” and a leader who has fought authoritarian regimes.

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“They really see her as a champion for their cause, and they’re really coming out to bat for her,” said the source.

But there is some lingering frustration among Liberals about Freeland’s resignation, which could cause some members to put her name lower on the ranked ballot.

Gould, the only millennial in the race, caused a surprise when she decided to run for leader. Her campaign said having her in the race has shaped the conversation for the better, as she has been pushing other contenders to talk more about affordability and issues that matter to people, instead of solely focusing on trade with the U.S.

“Everything was Trump, Trump, Trump at the beginning, and it’s definitely changed since then,” said a source close to her.

Gould’s team has also congratulated itself for being the pebble in Carney’s shoe despite Gould having a much leaner team than the frontrunner. They have even been floating the idea that Carney might not be elected on the first round, as his team is hoping for.

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“He’s not walking away with this. We’re causing some friction for them,” said a source close to Gould.

Then, there’s Baylis, who was first out the gate to announce his bid to replace Trudeau on Jan. 6, just hours after the prime minister announced he would be stepping down.

His spokeswoman Justine McIntyre said Baylis, who is executive chairman of a medical device company founded by his mother, may not be a household name in Ottawa but said he well-known is business and innovation circles.

She said he has also been a mentor in the Black community, and has maintained strong ties to the Sikh, Muslim and Filipino communities who helped him get elected as Liberal MP and said he has been reaching out to his networks during the leadership race.

“But certainly, every day of this campaign has been a struggle for us to promote him, to get his name out, to make sure that he’s included,” said McIntyre.

The new leader of the Liberal party will be announced in Ottawa on Sunday, March 9.

Former prime minister Jean Chrétien is expected to take the stage as speaker, as is Trudeau. The party said he will be thanked for his work as Liberal leader for over a decade.

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“This has been the honour of my life serving Canadians,” said Trudeau on Thursday.

But as of Monday, the transition begins — probably with Carney at the helm.

National Post
calevesque@postmedia.com

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