Mandryk: Big government spending a given for upcoming Sask. budget

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It would seem an odd time to go on a spending spree. Unfortunately, that’s what every budget tends to be.

Oh sure, there’s been the odd exception…

The Saskatchewan NDP budgets of 1992 and 1993 (the latter being the only one since medicare’s introduction that reduced heath spending by eliminating 52 rural hospitals and Regina’s Plains Health Centre to stave off provincial bankruptcy) comes to mind.

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And there’s still a lot of fuss over former Saskatchewan Party premier Brad Wall’s 2017 budget that ended the Saskatchewan Transportation Company. But budgets are seldom, if ever, about curtailing spending and living within our means — even when our economy is threatened by a tariffs war.

The 2020-21 budget best illustrates how spending projections are a much bigger priority than revenue projections. The budget that year was “cancelled” due to social distancing orders five years ago in which the Sask. Party government presented the spending side of the ledger, only.

The government in 2020 did not initially provide revenue projections (something it’s legally allowed to do) at a time when oil prices crashed to US$30 a barrel — half the US$50- to US$60-a-barrel price that Wall once suggested was the lowest possible price oil could ever go.

As we approach Wednesday’s budget, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price for crude oil now hovers around US$67 a barrel with U.S. President Donald Trump’s 10 per cent tariffs looming. Potash faces similar tariffs and steel is already being hit with 25 per cent tariffs.

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And, while everything else Saskatchewan exports to the U.S. is subject to Trump’s ongoing threat of 25 per cent tariffs, perhaps the biggest concern to both our economy and the budget is the 100 per cent retaliatory tariffs China has now slapped on our canola.

“Make no mistake: a 100 per cent tariff on Chinese canola and meal exports — alongside the challenge that we’re seeing in the United States with the on-and-off-again tariffs — will decimate the canola industry in Saskatchewan,” Premier Scott Moe said at the Saskatchewan Association of Rural Municipalities (SARM) annual convention this week.

But are fears of potential plummeting revenues likely to even slightly moderate government spending in the coming year? All signs suggest otherwise. One shouldn’t completely fault politicians for this.

They are simply wired to appease voters every budget year and this is a post-election budget in which promises are expected to be kept. (This also explains why we usually have deficits — we are about to see another for the 2025-26 fiscal year — that have accumulated into record debt.)

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Demands from those who need things like affordable child care or quick access to mammograms are as relentless as they are compelling. And, once politicians provide a program like affordable child care, it’s hard to cancel it, for fear it may cost them votes.

A further example: The 2024-25 budget still offered $727 million in tax exemptions to farmers and others by eliminating the PST on farm machinery and parts, chemicals, seed, fertilizer, agriculture, health and life insurance and foregoing tax collection on farm fuel.

Yet satisfying stakeholders with one thing just doesn’t decelerate non-stop spending demands.

So at SARM, Moe strongly hinted at spending increases for health care, education and crime in the budget. The Sask. Party government will ensure people “have access to a health-care provider wherever you live in this province.”

Moe repeated to the rural delegates his election promises to open urgent care centres in Saskatoon, North Battleford, Prince Albert and Moose Jaw and ensure better surgery availability across Saskatchewan.

He also promised 500 more police officers (the NDP has doggedly demanded more RCMP officers) and 500 more drug treatment beds.

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The government also announced this week a $21.5-million or 6.3 per cent increase in Municipal Revenue Sharing (MRS) to a record-setting $361.8 million. In that same announcement, Government Relations Minister Eric Schmalz emphasized the $4.6 billion in total MRS funding since 2007-08.

Expect to hear “record spending” a lot on Wednesday, but bet a lack of spending will still be the biggest gripe in the legislature’s rotunda. After all, it’s all about the spending.

Mandryk is the political columnist for the Regina Leader-Post and the Saskatoon StarPhoenix.

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