Flight bookings between Canada and U.S. down 70%, report says

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Passenger bookings on flight routes between Canada and the United States “have collapsed,” dropping by more than 70 per cent in every month through to the end of September 2025, according to new forward-looking flight data released by OAG Aviation Worldwide Ltd. (OAG).

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The report by OAG said data for the upcoming season show a “striking decline” in total bookings compared to the same point last year. For example, by March 2024 there were 1,218,570 flights booked for April, while for April 2025, only 295,982 bookings have been recorded this month, a 75.7 per cent decline.

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“This sharp drop suggests that travellers are holding off on making reservations, likely due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute,” it said.

The apparent fall in consumer confidence is a concern for all airlines operating between the neighbouring countries, especially over such a short period of time, said OAG. This adds to what had already become a softening market in the airline industry.

The report said customers still planning to travel may find some airlines offering particularly cheap fares over the next few months to stimulate demand. However, this will be an anxious period for airlines, especially as the traditional “snowbird” market from Canada to the U.S. could be badly impacted next year if the situation doesn’t soon improve.

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Scheduled one-way seats filed on March 3 and March 24, a three-week difference, had more than 320,000 seats removed by airlines through to the end of October.

The two peak summer months, July and August, have the most noticeable cuts, where airlines have lowered capacity by some 3.5 per cent. Meanwhile, sun destinations such as the Caribbean and Mexico have had an uptick in bookings from Canadian travellers.

Airlines had already started reducing capacity between Canada and the U.S. in anticipation of the drop in demand. Air Canada started cutting capacity to certain leisure destinations, including Florida, Las Vegas and Arizona, at the beginning of March.

“Demand for sun markets continues to surpass our expectations, and the booking curve has shifted to a more close environment,” the airline’s executive vice-president for revenue and network planning, Mark Galardo, said during Air Canada’s fourth quarter earnings call on Feb. 14.

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WestJet, too, has reported a shift in travel booking behaviour among Canadians.

“We have observed a shift in bookings from the U.S. to other sun destinations such as Mexico and the Caribbean among Canadian travellers,” Julia Kaiser, a spokesperson for WestJet Airlines Ltd. said in an email. She said the airline remains focused on knowing where people want to go, and will continue to fly where there is demand.

Budget carrier Flair Airlines Ltd. said it is also monitoring travel trends, including shifts in U.S. demand, and adjusts its network accordingly. The airline recently cancelled its summer flights to Nashville, which it attributed to a shift in demand.

The state of Tennessee’s tourism department blamed the trade war with the United States for the cancellations.

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Aside from seeing strong interest in transborder routes to Mexico, Jamaica and the Dominican Republic, Flair Airlines noted a rise in local demand, restarting and resuming some inter-Canadian routes earlier than planned.

Travellers looking to escape the cold Canadian winters usually travel south, many of them to Florida, the closest sunny haven and a popular destination for snowbirds. In an address on Mar. 6, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis mentioned that out of the state’s 142 million visitors last year, 3.3 million hailed from Canada, which he characterized as “not much of a boycott.”

Those numbers, however, are from before U.S. President Donald Trump took office and subsequently began threatening Canada with tariffs and annexation.

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Porter Airlines, which had previously increased its U.S. presence by approximately 150 per cent year-over-year, said that while it has filed schedules months in advance, the carrier is monitoring booking patterns and is mindful of the overall economic situation.

In an email, it said that Canadians are continuing to travel to the U.S., but the airline is seeing some softening of select U.S. leisure markets and fares are being adjusted to stimulate demand. Existing U.S. flights are being maintained, it said.

A survey conducted by Abacus Data on Feb. 20 to 25 said 56 per cent of Canadians who initially planned to visit the U.S. this year had either cancelled or changed their travel plans as tensions between the U.S. and Canada escalated.

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Nearly 40 per cent of those travellers said they had shifted their plans to other countries or different locations within Canada, while 17 per cent had postponed or cancelled their U.S. trips altogether.

Another survey, conducted by EQ Bank, looked into how Canadian travellers are managing the weaker Canadian dollar (CAD) against the U.S. dollar (USD), following President Trump’s signing of executive orders enacting tariffs on Feb. 1 and their subsequent postponement.

The survey, conducted from Feb. 4 to 6, said 62 per cent of the respondents planned to focus more on travel within Canada in light of the currency exchange. About the same percentage said they will travel less to the U.S. or internationally to manage the impact of a weaker Canadian dollar on their personal finances.

“With the ongoing tariff developments and ever-evolving trade wars, it’s no surprise that Canadians are focusing on travelling domestically while giving up on their travel plans to the U.S.,” it said.

• Email: dpaglinawan@postmedia.com

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