Survey Says is a weekly column rounding up three of the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about. You’ll also find data-based updates on past Daily Kos reporting, plus a vibe check on a trend that’s driving politics.
Yemen war plans, u up?
It was the text chain heard ‘round the world. On Monday, The Atlantic revealed that its top editor had been mistakenly added to a group chat in which top Trump administration officials planned a highly sensitive military operation in Yemen with all the seriousness the administration is known for.
“👊🇺🇸🔥,” national security adviser Mike Waltz wrote, in response to Vice President JD Vance’s praise of the operation’s killing of the Houthi rebel group’s “top missile guy.”
As it turns out, Americans are less 👊🇺🇸🔥 about the leak, and more 🤬.
Overall, 74% of U.S. adults consider it a serious problem that top Trump officials discussed sensitive war plans on an unclassified chat that included a journalist, according to YouGov. Only 13% don’t think it’s a problem.
The issue largely transcends partisanship too. Ninety percent of Democrats consider it a serious issue, as do 72% of independents. Even 60% of Republicans(!) consider it a problem. Only 24% of Republicans think texting a journalist sensitive war plans isn’t all that serious.
On the surface level, the breach recalls the “but her emails” scandal of 2015-16. During her time as former President Barack Obama’s secretary of state, Hillary Clinton used a private email server for official communications. Though the FBI twice cleared her of criminal wrongdoing, Republicans slammed her over the issue. It came to dominate the final days of the 2016 presidential election, and an FBI letter about the scandal very likely cost her the election, forcing Donald Trump onto us all.
Given the severe repercussions of the email scandal, you might expect it to have greatly troubled Americans at the time and probably more than this week’s leak. If so, you’d be wrong.
In early March 2015, days after The New York Times broke the emails story, a YouGov poll found that 56% of Americans considered her use of a private email server to be a serious problem, though only 30% considered it “very serious.”
That said, this poll was fielded over a month before Clinton launched her presidential campaign—and well before the “but her emails” scandal became the stuff of legend (or nightmares). And in September 2022, when YouGov asked about it again, 63% considered it to be a serious problem, with 41% now thinking it was “very serious.”
But that’s still less than the reaction to the war plans leak.
The poll on this week’s leak fiasco was conducted on Tuesday, one day after The Atlantic’s initial story, and the outlet released the chat’s full transcript on Wednesday. As the story develops and more folks learn about it, the polls are very likely to move, though it’s hard to say in which direction.
For instance, Republicans could soften their disapproval, just like they did about the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection. Three days after that attack, only 16% of Republicans approved of the riot, according to YouGov. By June 2022, 31% did. And now election denialism is basically a prerequisite for Republican politicians.
In other words, don’t be surprised if you soon see the worst Republican you know waving a flag that says, “👊🇺🇸🔥.”
Search and DOGEstroy
Elon Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency is operating on a false premise. Unlike his small-government, crony-capitalist vision of the U.S., Americans think it’s important that the government provides a lot of services.
An overwhelming 93% of likely voters want the government to provide benefits like Social Security, according to Data for Progress. That comes as Musk’s cuts to the Social Security Administration have basically crashed its system, though payments are still going out (for now).
In fact, more than 80% of Americans want the government to protect consumers from financial exploitation at the hands of banks, fully staff the National Park and U.S. Forest services, and provide student loans to low-income Americans.
Musk and Trump have whittled away at each of those duties. In early February, the Trump administration ordered the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to cease work, which will no doubt lead to more financial exploitation. Later that month, they canned hundreds of national park workers, threatening operating hours. And more recently, they set about blowing up the Education Department, which manages federal student loans.
It’s easy to see why Republican lawmakers are terrified of facing down voters at town halls.
Democrats think their party is a downer
The Democratic Party’s brand is in a rough spot. New data from YouGov finds that a majority of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (58%) think their party isn’t meeting the moment. And 75% say the party isn’t challenging the GOP forcefully enough.
Only 54% of Democrats think their party has a clear vision for the future. And less than half think their party is good at recruiting strong candidates (46%) and communicating its message (45%). All of that tracks since the party just lost a major election and lacks an obvious leader right now. (Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are MIA, and Barack Obama is busy filling out March Madness brackets.)
Republicans’ frustrations toward their own party just don’t compare. They rate their party lowest on its respect for democratic norms and its prioritization of the public interest over their own political gain. However, lowest doesn’t mean low: 60% of Republicans still give their party good marks in both areas.
The biggest gap between how partisans view their party? Eighteen percent of Republicans think their party lacks new leadership with fresh ideas, while a staggering 62% of Democrats think the same about their party. That yawning 44-percentage-point difference is no doubt due to Democrats like Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, whose brand has become particularly toxic after he caved to Republicans on a bill to fund the government.
Any updates?
-
Your average American may not be texting war plans on an unsecured group chat that includes an Atlantic editor, but 39% of Americans have inadvertently sent a sensitive message to the wrong person, according to YouGov. That includes 17% who have done it more than once. Meanwhile, 51% are perfect angels who have never made such an error.
-
Eric Adams, New York City’s shady-as-hell mayor, appears on track to get smoked in the Democratic primary for the position he currently holds. A new Data for Progress poll shows him in fourth place, with 7%, behind city Comptroller Brad Lander (8%), progressive state Rep. Zohran Mamdani (15%), and former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who, at 39%, sits far in the lead. Will America’s most populous city replace an indicted mayor with an alleged sex pest who reportedly covered up nursing home deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic? We’ll have to wait a while to see. The Democratic primary is on June 24.
-
TikTok, enemy No. 1 of attention spans in those under age 40, faces an April deadline to sell itself or be banned in the U.S. (Trump could also kick the deadline down the road again.) However, while 50% of American adults supported a ban in March 2023, support has ticked down to just 34%, according to Pew Research Center.
Vibe check
Slowly but steadily, voters are souring on how Trump is handling his job as president, and according to Civiqs, he’s losing support especially quickly among a key voting bloc: independent women. His best numbers with them came in late January, when 53% disapproved of the job he was doing as president and 41% approved. That works out to him being 11 points underwater (when the numbers aren’t rounded).
But recently, that margin has doubled. As of Wednesday, Trump sits at 22 points underwater with independent women. Fifty-nine percent disapprove, and only 36% approve.
