New modeling tool could help protect wildlife from offshore developments

Scientists have developed a new resource to better protect seabirds from the impacts of offshore wind farms. The innovative modeling tool has the potential to save wildlife, while ensuring the effective and sustainable development of renewable energy sources.

Led by researchers at the University of Glasgow, the new modeling tool, published in the journal Methods in Ecology and Evolution, is the first of its kind to accurately predict space use of seabird colonies without requiring extensive satellite tracking data, which is often not available.

Seabird environmental assessment tools are used to inform planning decisions for offshore windfarms. While useful, current assessment methods can vary in accuracy and may lead to offshore windfarms being built in areas with high bird density. Conversely, offshore windfarm developments may be inadvertently rejected based on overestimates of seabirds at sea.

Many seabird species nest in colonies on small pieces of land, including clusters of rocks off the coast. From there, birds fly and forage around a local area at sea—their home range—which varies in size depending on colony size and location. Because of these characteristic behaviors, central-place foragers such as seabirds, are particularly sensitive to environmental stressors in their local surroundings, including the development of wind farms, which may have severe impacts on colony numbers and well-being.

Using GPS tracking data from 8 Northern gannet colonies to verify their predictions, the researchers show that their new tool approximately doubles the predictive power of other industry-standard methods. The new tool was 73% accurate on average, in comparison to 41% and 31% accuracy of current seabird assessment tools. Current methods also over- and underestimated colony exposure to offshore wind farms in different scenarios.

Researchers believe their new tool could be transformative for offshore windfarm planning, allowing us to protect wildlife while also safely building sources of renewable energy.

Lead author of the study, Ph.D. student Holly Niven from the School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine, said, “Accurate estimation of the impacts of offshore wind farms and other stressors on seabirds can help us make more informed decisions about offshore wind farm plans and protect the species living around our coasts.”

Additionally, researchers say the new modeling tool could also be used to accurately predict the space use of other colonial wildlife, including seals, bats and bees.

Jason Matthiopoulos, Professor of Spatial and Population Ecology who supervised the study, said, “Ironically, different environmentally positive activities such as wildlife conservation and our progress towards green energy can come into conflict with each other. Resolving these conflicts relies on good data, but equally, on state-of-the-art computer modeling techniques.”

Jana Jeglinski, Research Fellow and co-supervisor of the study, said, “Many seabird colonies are located at remote islands or cliffs that make GPS tracking studies extremely challenging or even impossible. Our method can predict biologically realistic home ranges and exposure for such inaccessible colonies and it can also forecast future home ranges given the size of a colony—this is important since offshore windfarm construction will drastically increase in the near future.”