With higher costs at the grocery store, preparing school lunches can be a challenge, especially for families with tighter budgets.
But there is some relief at the grocery store, according to a new analysis.
Dalhousie University’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab found that while some grocery items are costlier, others have become cheaper. Its data suggests certain food prices will drop this fall.
What’s more, interest rates are trending downwards. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to slash its overnight rate for the third straight time Wednesday.
The BoC’s rate decisions influence overall economic conditions, so lower rates could help alleviate living costs for some families, including making school lunches more affordable, Sylvain Charlebois, professor and senior director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab in Halifax, said.
As an example, if the overnight rate decreases by 0.5 percentage points by October, a family with a $500,000 mortgage and a variable rate amortized over 25 years could see their payments fall by up to $1,800 over 12 months, he said.
“This reduction could equate to the purchase of 246 to 345 school lunches, making a significant difference for parents,” Charlebois wrote in a press release Tuesday.
Here are the trends with food prices nationwide based on his lab’s analysis.
More affordable grocery items
The Agri-Food Analytics Lab provided general price trends for certain groceries, without providing specific dollar amounts. Charlebois says a detailed assessment will be reserved for the lab’s annual December forecast.
According to the forecast, for some protein products you would put in sandwiches, wraps or salads, families have more affordable options.
Poultry, including chicken breasts, thighs and drumsticks, has become more affordable in recent months.
Meanwhile, turkey may not be so cheap as supplies could be lower this year, according to the Agri-Food Analytics Lab.
In addition, beef products, such as stewing cuts and ground beef, have seen price hikes, but they are expected to drop this fall.
As for dairy, milk and yogurt, prices saw modest increases.
“Adding a small container of yogurt or a cheese stick to a lunchbox is still a nutritious and economical choice, ensuring that children receive necessary calcium and protein throughout the day,” read the press release.
For fruit options, grapes and strawberries are more affordable, though apples and oranges have seen modest price hikes.
“The increased domestic production of these fruits and a strong Canadian dollar, supported by a weaker American dollar, are expected to help keep prices lower in the produce section,” read the press release.
Vegetable prices vary, with cheaper lettuce and cucumbers that could be used for sandwiches or side dishes. Certain vegetables like onions and sweet potatoes are more expensive, however.
“Parents can strike a balance by mixing more affordable produce with smaller portions of the pricier items, ensuring a variety of nutrients without overspending,” according to the press release.
Consumers can also expect savings with certain pantry staples.
The cost of canned beans, pasta sauce and cooking oils, for instance, has been stable or even decreased.
Expect canned tuna and salmon, in particular, to be cheaper, the lab forecasts.
For convenience, busy families can turn to some frozen vegetables and fruits that have dropped in price, such as strawberries.
“The stronger Canadian dollar will likely continue to benefit consumers this fall,” the lab said in the press release. “These frozen items can be used in smoothies or packed directly into lunchboxes, where they can double as a cooling element.”
The analysis included more than 10,000 price points for various food items across different regions nationally. A machine-learning forecasting model was used to predict prices over the next three months. The food categories are based on Statistics Canada’s list of reference food products.
