NDP’s Jagmeet Singh makes pitch to voters after byelection results

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OTTAWA — Federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is using a close byelection win in Winnipeg and three-way race where it finished third in Montreal to argue that his party is the one Canadians should choose if they want to stop Conservatives.

Speaking to reporters on Parliament Hill, Singh stopped short of offering any indication of how he might vote on a motion of non-confidence, which Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has promised to bring forward as soon as he can to the minority Parliament, which has returned for the fall sitting.

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The NDP has been trailing far behind the Conservatives, which have been soaring in public opinion polls since last year as more Canadians appear to grow disinterested in returning Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals to a fourth term in government.

Singh is now trying to make the case that his is the party Canadians should choose if they want change and, more specifically, if they want change that is not Poilievre’s Conservatives.

“If you are out there and you’re worried about the cuts of Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre, I invite you to join us,” he said Tuesday.

“We have shown you that when we fight, we can win.”

The reality of the Liberals’ fortunes was hammered home to parties in Monday’s byelection in Montreal’s LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, a historically safe seat for the Liberals which they lost to the Bloc Quebecois in a tight three-way race and where the NDP finished third.

The Liberal vote also cratered to just under five per cent in Elmwood-Transcona, down from the nearly 15 per cent it earned during the 2021 federal vote. The Liberals have not historically been competitive in the NDP stronghold, but both federal New Democrats and Conservatives pointed to the party’s fall as evidence that voters are turning away.

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Singh pointed to the fact his party held onto the suburban Winnipeg seat, which has swung orange for the better part of 30 years, as evidence to voters that New Democrats can win.

Not only that, Melanie Richer, his former communications director, said it was important that the party managed to keep its share of the vote from the last federal election when it was won by former MP Daniel Blaikie, whose family has deep ties to the community, as the area had been held by his father since 1988.

“One would expect that to almost be a bit of a draw, but for New Democrats, that actually was a win.” she said.

Former NDP strategist Kathleen Monk said pulling off the win was significant because of the cash the Conservatives spent throughout the summer running advertisements that criticized Singh as a “sellout” for entering into a supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals in March 2022 to get its priorities like dental care and pharmacare passed in exchange for passing government bills.

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Singh announced he was exiting the deal just days before advanced voting began in the byelections, which Conservatives saw as a move to try and boost its chances by distancing himself from an increasingly unpopular prime minister.

While Monk characterized the NDP’s battle against the Conservatives for Elmwood-Transcona as a “David and Goliath-style” fight against the Conservatives’ war chest, the Tories viewed themselves as the underdog in an orange stronghold, who were also up against the brand of Manitoba NDP Premier Wab Kinew, who remains popular.

Leading into Monday’s vote, a call from Kinew went into households in the riding. He also endorsed  NDP candidate Leila Dance.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre posted on X about how the party grew its share by 16 per cent compared to the 2021 federal vote, which insiders said they felt was a good result as it showed the party made gains in a riding it has only ever held once back in 2011.

Going into the race, Conservatives had been bracing for a close result.

A senior NDP source, speaking on the condition they not be named, said New Democrats did better “than expected” in Elmwood-Transcona, which it went into expecting a close fight.

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Besides ensuring it had necessary resources in place, the source said the party focused “relentlessly” on the issues of affordability and health care.

Conservative strategist Kate Harrison said the byelections show Conservatives must train their focus squarely on the NDP heading into the next federal vote, which must happen no later than October 2025, and attack Singh not only on his ties to Trudeau, but on his own “merits.”

NDP strategist Jordan Leichnitz said Singh needs to be able to show that his party is ready to fight the next election, which Monday’s results proved it could, including by showing itself to be competitive in a Montreal riding.

“It’s re-energizing people in terms of focusing on election readiness. It is also reinforcing the idea that ending the confidence-and-supply agreement was the right move.”

Former NDP director of communications George Soule said pulling off a win in Winnipeg also pushes back against efforts the Conservatives have been making to target working class voters in NDP-held ridings, which gives hope to caucus members across British Columbia and Ontario for whom the Conservatives pose the biggest threat. 

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“With confidence comes … better fundraising, better preparation, stronger pushback in the House of Commons,” he said.

Edmonton NDP MP Heather McPherson offered a bit of that on her way into the House of Commons Tuesday.

“I’m interested in eating a bit of their lunch.”

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