Hurricane season isn’t done with Florida, as the second major hurricane in as many weeks is set to make landfall and break records on the peninsular state in the coming days.
The storm is Hurricane Milton, which surged to Category 5 status this morning. It was first classified as a hurricane yesterday at 2 p.m. ET. By this morning, it was still a Category 1, but quickly intensified—upgraded to Category 2 by 5 a.m. ET, Category 3 by 7 a.m., and Category 4 by 9 a.m. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recorded data around 11:55 a.m., showing Hurricane Milton had reached winds over 160 miles per hour (257 km/h), making it one of the fastest-intensifying hurricanes on record, just behind storms Wilma (2005) and Felix (2007).
Category 5 storms are the highest intensity on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale; to be a Category 5 storm, a system must achieve wind speeds greater than 157 miles per hour (253 kilometers per hour), though the storm is expected to drop to a Category 3 storm by the time it makes landfall. That said, a Category 3 storm is no walk in the park. According to the National Weather Service, if the storm stays on track it will be “the worst storm to impact the Tampa area in over 100 years,” bringing winds exceeding 110 miles per hour and storm surge exceeding 9 feet to the city of 400,000 people.
In a special advisory posted this morning, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warned of “life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds” along the western coast of Florida starting between Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. In an advisory posted later this morning, NOAA added that heavy rainfall would likely impact Florida today—well before the system makes landfall—and will bring the risk of considerable flooding.
Hurricane Milton approaches Florida’s west cost just over a week after Hurricane Helene slammed into the state’s Big Bend. Hurricane Helene made landfall as a Category 4 storm that ultimately carved through Georgia, Tennessee, and the Carolinas, bringing widespread flooding, leaving hundreds of thousands without power, and causing the deaths of over 200 people. Helene also became a lightning rod for conspiracy theorists; you can expect similar claims about Hurricane Milton.
Major hurricanes affecting the Gulf States is nothing new, but much-warmer-than-average ocean temperatures are a breeding ground for more intense storms. Earlier this year, NOAA and Colorado State University forecast between 17 and 25 named storms for the season, up from historical averages. Milton is the thirteenth named storm of the season, which doesn’t end until November 30.
According to the most recent NOAA release, there is risk of moderate flash flooding as far south as the tip of Florida and as far north as southeastern Georgia. There is a marginal risk of flash flooding as far north as Charleston, South Carolina and nearly as far west as Tallahassee.
Milton is currently raking the northern tip of Mexico’s Yucatán, after which it is projected to chart a northeasterly course towards Tampa. Milton is expected to make landfall in Florida Wednesday night and will take less than 12 hours to cross over the state and head east into the Atlantic Ocean.
