Expert warns not to ‘overreact’ as poll places NDP above Sask. Party

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A Saskatchewan researcher says a poll reporting that the Saskatchewan NDP may be taking the lead in this provincial election should be considered carefully before celebrating any winning momentum.

“Whenever a poll comes out, we don’t want to overreact to one individual poll,” said Daniel Westlake, assistant professor of political science at the University of Saskatchewan. “There’s always the chance a poll may be an outlier.”

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Results from a poll commissioned by CTV News from Insightrix Research released Tuesday suggests the NDP has become the frontrunner over the Saskatchewan Party in the final lead-up to election day on Oct. 28.

Of those surveyed by the research group between Oct. 18 and Oct. 20, 50 per cent of decided voters said they intend to vote for the NDP, while 45 per cent planned to vote for the Sask. Party. The unweighted sample size included 802 residents, with a margin of error at plus-minus 3.5 percent.

More than half of respondents (55 per cent) also indicated in the survey that they are “ready for change.” That ratio remained consistent with a similar poll done a month ago by Insightrix. Undecided voters in the most recent poll decreased to 21 per cent of respondents from 33 per cent last month.

In September, Insightrix was polling the Sask. Party at 48 per cent and the NDP at 49 per cent — meaning the parties saw a three-point loss and a one-point gain, respectively, throughout October.

“What Insightrix is finding now seems pretty consistent with what they found before, which suggests a race that isn’t changing very much,” Westlake said in an interview with the Leader-Post.

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“If the drop in the Sask. Party was bigger, it’d be interesting to see if that vote was going to the Sask. United Party, given they’re not seeing a jump in NDP support.”

CTV’s report does not mention if any fringe parties made gains in the month between polls. Westlake was not surprised by this, as it’s possible the difference is small enough to attribute to a margin of error.

Plus, he added, getting accurate polling on small parties is notoriously difficult when working with random samples. Insightrix polled “other” parties at four per cent in September.

“Trying to get an accurate read of where party support is at when you only have one to five per cent of the population voting for that party is really hard,” he said. “Some of these pollsters may just not have the ability to do that with any kind of confidence.”

As for the voters saying they want change, Westlake advised that should also be weighed carefully as it could be susceptible to sample skew.

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“If they’ve got more people that like the NDP in their sample, chances are they probably are getting more people who want to see a change in government than other pollsters,” he said.

Westlake noted all four polls done by Insightrix in 2024 have reported a slight NDP lead. That’s in contrast to all other pollsters in the province who have consistently found a Sask. Party edge, including the Angus Reid Institute, Research Co., Mainstreet Research, and Janet Brown Opinion Research. This could be attributed to methodology or the difference in random sample selection between the researchers, he added.

Research Co. offers the next-most-recent data, which was collected on Oct. 8. It projects support for the Sask. Party at 51 per cent and the NDP at 43 per cent on a weighted sample of 500 respondents.

For voters who are paying attention to polling data, Westlake advised that they consider Insightrix’s results alongside other pollsters to “get a sense of the trend on average.”

“Don’t rely too much on a single poll,” he said.

Responding to the new data Tuesday, communications manager Matthew Glover said the Sask. Party is “confident that our level of support is higher than reflected in this poll” based on doorstep engagement.

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“The only poll that matters is election day. Every vote counts, and we encourage everyone to get out and cast their ballot,” wrote Glover, in an email to the Leader-Post.

A spokesperson for the Sask. NDP said candidates were already aware that “people are looking for change” based on interactions on the campaign trail.

“We’re listening and are ready to deliver that change,” reads an emailed statement. “The only poll that matters is election day and our team is taking nothing for granted.”

Voting week began on Tuesday, with polls open daily until Saturday. Voters may also cast a ballot on Oct. 28.

lkurz@postmedia.com

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