I want to mention one element of the story we’re now seeing unfold before us. We don’t know who’s going to win this thing or just how either candidate might do it. But what has always been the most obvious way for Harris to win this election is to hold the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. I’ve already discussed with you the issues with the Trump campaign’s decision to outsource its ground operations to super PACs and the way that doesn’t seem to have panned out. But the states themselves aren’t entirely passive players. Or they shouldn’t be. When things are working as they should the national party and the presidential standard bearer’s campaign can plug into a dynamic party organization in a given state.
A pattern that has become more and more clear to me over the last month or so is that to the extent Democrats are outplaying Republicans on the ground a significant part of that is the legacy of Trump’s “Stop the Steal” shenanigans. It’s left a number of these state parties deeply splintered and unable or even unwilling to do the kind of work that keeps a party organization functioning.
In many of these states you have conflicts between the diehard Stop the Steal types and more mainline Republicans who’ve been fully onboard with Trump but found the full Stop the Steal craziness just a step too far. That’s led to really acrimonious battles for control of state party organizations. If the Stop the Steal Trumpers win, those people don’t tend to have a lot of appetite or ability to do the regular blocking and tackling of party building and organizing. They’re bigger on performative nonsense. Meanwhile when the regulars hold on to control often they’re so battered by the process there’s a sort of “fuck this” attitude where they just don’t have the inclination or patience to work with the people who’ve spent however many years vilifying and trashing them and in a few cases even inciting violence against them. I don’t want to make too much of this dynamic. But in a number of states, a number of them key swing states, that’s left highly splintered and enervated state parties. It’s playing at least some role in leaving minimal ground organization in these states. It’s not just about Trump having shuttered the existing infrastructure at the RNC.
My normal caveats. This definitely doesn’t mean Trump will lose. But it’s a dynamic shaping the terrain in a number of these states and like the issues with GOTV at the national level it could turn out to be an important part of the story in a close race. If this does go down to the wire and Democrats win the election on the ground in a close race this legacy of the disgraceful Stop the Steal episode will be a great irony.
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