Just like last offseason, there is one massive fish in baseball’s free agency pond. Juan Soto is in his own tier above all the rest when it comes to players who are available to be signed in free agency — that much is clear. What isn’t so clear is which team he’ll be playing for next year. He’s clearly looking forward to this opportunity to pick his next destination — so much so that he’s quoted as saying that he’s “available to all 30 teams.”
While he’s surely going to be weighing the pros and cons for each team in Major League Baseball, I think we all know that there are certain teams who have an actual shot and certain teams who have no shot. This tier list is going to be my effort to try to rate the chances of all 30 teams. From the non-factors to the frontrunners, you’ll find them all here. Let’s try to figure out where Soto’s going, shall we?
F Tier: We all know it’s not happening
Athletics, Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies, Los Angeles Angels, Miami Marlins, Pittsburgh Pirates
Ah, the usual suspects. If you’re a fan of these teams and you still clicked on this article, just know that I like you because I know that you’re interested in baseball as a whole and not just your favorite team. But yeah, I think you and I both know that Juan Soto will not be putting on any of these teams’ uniforms come Opening Day 2025. These are the teams that are usually extremely thrifty, far out of contention or a combination of both. It would be very cool to see Soto in a White Sox or Pirates uniform just because they look cool but I think we all already know to scratch these teams off of the list almost immediately.
D Tier: The Central division teams
Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins, St. Louis Cardinals
These teams aren’t in awful situations — in some cases, they’re actually in pretty solid situations. These teams do, however, have a reputation of not being huge spenders in free agency. It also just so happens that each of these teams plays in the Central division of their respective leagues. Coincidence, right? You could look at the Twins signing Carlos Correa but that only happened after two teams dropped the ball on signing him. The Tigers have made the biggest free agency signing in this group of teams (Prince Fielder in 2012 for nine years, $212 million) but the current state of ownership hasn’t exactly shown the same appetite to spend big like that. So count these teams out as well.
C Tier: If you squint, it’s feasible
Arizona Diamondbacks, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Washington Nationals, Tampa Bay Rays
If this was a different era that wasn’t so long ago, maybe we’d see the Red Sox and Cubs higher up in this list. Instead, it seems like both of these clubs have settled into the pack. Again, they’re not in a horrible situation and maybe if they decide to open up their checkbook, it could definitely happen. Still, it’s hard to imagine them pulling up in such a major way in this particular offseason.
Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks, Mariners and Nationals are all very interesting and extremely dark horses in this race. The Nationals are this high as well due to this being a potential reunion spot. With the Nationals coming back into a decent spot themselves, we could see them decide to go on a shopping spree that includes the crown jewel of free agency. If Washington wants to contend right away, bringing Soto back sure would help.
The only reason why the Rays are all the way up here is because they’ve at least shown some sort of interest with spending money and have done so with a big money contract extension in the past. Is it likely that they’ll spend big here? Probably not! Would it be very funny to see Juan Soto ending up with the Rays? Absolutely!
B Tier: Stranger things have happened
Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, Texas Rangers
These are all teams that are either contenders or teams with a history with spending money. The Braves aren’t going to have Ronald Acuña Jr. back by Opening Day and aren’t known to enter into bidding wars themselves, but wouldn’t it be nice for him to return with Juan Soto somewhere out there alongside him? The Phillies are reeling after their NLDS exit but a good way to respond to that would be owner John Middleton opening up his wallet and letting Dave Dombrowski reunite Bryce Harper with Juan Soto. The Rangers are no strangers to spending big money and if they really want him, they’ll open up their wallet as well.
The Astros also aren’t scared to break open their wallet but they may be focusing on keeping their own players (such as Alex Bregman) than going for the huge splash. The Orioles are in a position where it’s high time for them to make a splash that would be a real sign of intent when it comes to keeping this window open and if they want to get the jump on their AL East rivals, this would be a great way to do it. The Padres could also serve as another interesting reunion spot but admittedly, this seems like a long shot since they had their opportunity to lock him down to an extension and couldn’t make it happen. Now it’ll be far more difficult since Soto is on the open market.
A Tier: The team that got Ohtani and the team that almost got him
Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto Blue Jays
At this point, you can never count out the Dodgers when it comes to spending money. This is a team that just got done spending a billion dollars in one offseason and have the trophy from the World Series to show for it. With that being said, even the Dodgers may have their limit since they will have an astonishing amount of money on the books for just a handful of players if they decide to bring in Soto. Plus the Dodgers may also want to keep whatever flexibility they have remaining available for anything they’d like to pursue in the future, so this may be a situation where Soto’s price may end up being too rich for LA this time around.
With that being said, the Blue Jays are in a similar position to where the team that’s in the next tier is in. They came up agonizingly short in the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes last offseason and they didn’t spend a ton of money in that offseason after they missed out on Ohtani. Assuming that they’re still sitting on that money (and also assuming that the reports are true that they did, in fact, offer a similar amount of money for Ohtani that the Dodgers did) then they could decide to go for one more big fish in free agency. If the Blue Jays can convince Soto to be the face of Canada’s team, that could make up for losing out on the face of baseball as a whole last offseason.
SF Tier: Please just give us one
San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants are also in a tier of their own because if they choose to go after Juan Soto, they are going to pull out all the stops in order to get him and it’s likely because this will be the time where they finally pull it off and get the deal to the finish line. They’ve swung for the fences so many times in recent years for a top free agent and they’ve either struck out, hit it to the warning track, or actually hit what looked to be a home run only for it to be taken away via replay review. The Giants need a free agency win and maybe the combination of Buster Posey as President and Zack Minasian as General Manager could be enough to finally get San Francisco that big fish that they’ve been searching for for years.
S Tier: New York, New York
New York Mets, New York Yankees
Juan Soto is very likely going to continue playing baseball primarily in New York City. Whether or not it’s in the Bronx or Queens is anybody’s guess at this point. Both of these teams have owners who are willing to spend a boatload of money if the situation presents itself — Steven Cohen is the richest owner in baseball and while Hal isn’t George, he’s still a Steinbrenner. Both of these teams figure to be in the thick of contention next season. Both of these teams can easily fit Soto into their respective lineups and both of these teams have already made it abundantly clear that they want Soto on their team and badly.
The only real question now is which team will appeal to Soto more? With the Yankees, Soto is already familiar with the organization and has also gotten a taste of what it’s like to be a star player on the Yankees when they’re making a deep run. There’s something to be said about having a history and having a culture of winning and while the Yankees haven’t accomplished their annual ultimate goal of winning the World Series since 2009, they’re usually going to be in the mix in any given year. Plus, Soto has already played for three teams in seven seasons. If he simply wants to go for consistency for not just this year but for the foreseeable future, then the choice is obvious.
However, it’s pretty clear that the Mets are going to do whatever it takes to bring him in. It’s very easy to see Cohen outbidding anybody who decides to get into a spending contest with him and they’ll have plenty of money to do so with hundreds of millions of dollars coming after payroll. Cohen also is going to be in the mood for big spending — the past two World Series champions essentially spent their way to a World Series title. Combine that with the fact that the Mets made a surprise run to not just the Postseason but all the way to the NLCS and suddenly you have a recipe for an emboldened billionaire who loves to spend money dropping some of that money on the biggest name in free agency.
If the ambition of Cohen and the Mets matches what Juan Soto has in mind, then we could very well see Soto wearing royal blue pinstripes instead of navy blue pinstripes in the Bronx across town. Either way, it seems like this’ll be a safe bet that Juan Soto will be staying in New York. As far as everybody else goes, it’s still fun to dream, right?
