The CFL Division Finals are finally upon us and four serious contenders remain in the hunt for Canadian football’s most prestigious prize.
By contrast, just two people remain in contention for 3DownNation’s picks crown. Ben Grant is two games up on Joel Gasson for the straight-up title with three games remaining, while the two are neck-and-neck against the spread. The only other person with skin in the game is John Hodge, who can still technically tie for the lead in the latter category if things break his way.
Here are our picks for the Divisional Finals in the CFL.
Saturday, Nov. 9: Toronto Argonauts at Montreal Alouettes — 3:00 p.m. EST
This year’s East Final is the mirror image of 2023, as the Argos are looking to avenge one of the greatest upsets in CFL playoff history by knocking off an Alouettes team that has been coasting for months. In that game, Chad Kelly offered up a dud of a performance that rivalled any in the annals of postseason of postseason football but he posted a perfect passer rating in last week’s offensive explosion against Ottawa. It seems the Boatmen’s wave might be cresting at just the right time, as a punishing running back rotation, the rise of rookie receiver Makai Polk, and a ferocious defensive line have combined to generate four wins in their last five. Montreal hasn’t had the same luck, winning just two of their final seven games down the stretch. The offence hasn’t been the same since losing Tyson Philpot, and the pass rush is ailing with Shawn Lemon suspended and Mustafa Johnson out hurt. Nevertheless, a formula of mistake-free football and opportunistic takeaways got the Alouettes to the promised land last year and could do so again in front of a sold-out home crowd.
ABBOTT: Montreal has no offensive horsepower and teams have figured out their defence. Things could get really ugly against a Toronto team built to create explosive plays and peaking at the perfect moment.
Straight-up: Toronto. Against the spread: Toronto.
BALLANTINE: Toronto scored a ton of opportunistic points last week that are unlikely to be available this week. They’ll come back down to earth in La Belle Province.
Straight-up: Montreal. Against the spread: Montreal.
DURRELL: The Argonauts are the hottest team in the CFL while the Alouettes struggled a bit down the stretch — albeit with nothing to play for. While going into a sold-out Percival Molson Stadium will be tough for Toronto, I do think they have too much momentum to be stopped right now.
Straight-up: Toronto. Against the spread: Toronto.
FILOSO: The Argos might be the hottest team in the CFL but going into Montreal against the reigning champs is a tough task. Jason Maas and company will be very aggressive on both sides of the ball and I think that winds up being the difference.
Straight-up: Montreal. Against the spread: Montreal.
GASSON: As former NFL and NCAA coach Herm Edwards once said: “You play to win the game.” I have to pick against Ben the rest of the way to win. Is this what I really think? I’ll never tell.
Straight-up: Montreal. Against the spread: Montreal.
GRANT: Montreal earned their bye and additional rest with the best record in the league but as we saw with Toronto last year, that can be a curse. I don’t think Montreal will be able to flip the switch against the hottest team in the CFL.
Straight-up: Toronto. Against the spread: Toronto.
HERRERA-VERGARA: The Argos are the hottest team in the CFL but it won’t be enough against a well-rested Alouettes squad. The defence should be the difference for Montreal.
Straight-up: Montreal. Against the spread: Montreal.
HODGE: The Argonauts have been the best team in the CFL for a while now. They’re well-balanced on offence, terrific up front on defence, and have the best special teams in the league. They won the season series against Montreal and they should win the East Final.
Straight-up: Toronto. Against the spread: Toronto.
HOSKINS: It’s a heavyweight battle in the East and I think the extra week of rest pays off. Toronto wants to prove last year was a one-off and Montreal wants to prove it wasn’t. I’ll take Maas to make it so.
Straight-up: Montreal. Against the spread: Montreal.
KLEIN: I think the Alouettes’ late-season stumbles were about more than just having everything wrapped up. Toronto will be able to pull ahead and the Als can’t keep up.
Straight-up: Toronto. Against the spread: Toronto.
TOTALS STRAIGHT-UP: Montreal 5, Toronto 5
TOTALS AGAINST THE SPREAD: Montreal 5, Toronto 5
Saturday, Nov. 9: Saskatchewan Roughriders at Winnipeg Blue Bombers — 6:30 p.m. EST
One of the CFL’s best rivalries takes centre stage in the West Final, as the Saskatchewan Roughriders will travel to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers for a Banjo Bowl rematch. Both teams have been playing excellent football as of late but Winnipeg holds a 2-1 edge in the season series, although Saskatchewan is still in front according to point differential. The ground game should be front and centre in this one, as Canadian running Brady Oliveira continues to be the straw that stirs the drink for the Bombers. However, Corey Mace’s elite defensive unit has held him under 50 yards rushing in all three games and hopes doing so again will force Zach Collaros to go to the air against a secondary leading the league in takeaways. Meanwhile, Winnipeg’s persistent three-man rush and heavy zone coverage helped flummox Saskatchewan in a Labour Day sweep, a strategy that Marc Mueller hopes to make redundant with a heavy dose of A.J. Ouellette and Ryquell Armstead. The former had his second-most-productive game of the year in the Riders’ one win over their prairie rival but left Thor’s hammer hanging on a coat hook due to injury in the two losses. Figuring out how to stop him without exposing holes for Trevor Harris could be the key to Winnipeg going back to the Grey Cup for a fifth consecutive year.
ABBOTT: Saskatchewan has mostly bottled up Brady Oliveira in their meetings this season but that hasn’t been enough to win games. Despite their generally poor playoff performances, Winnipeg has found ways to win ugly – especially at home.
Straight-up: Winnipeg. Against the spread: Saskatchewan.
BALLANTINE: I spent a good portion of the season picking with my heart instead of my head — to my detriment. Corey Mace is good people and good things should happen to good people.
Straight-up: Saskatchewan. Against the spread: Saskatchewan.
DURRELL: I think the Riders match up really well with their eastern neighbours and showed that a sold-out Princess Auto Stadium wasn’t going to intimidate them. However, until Winnipeg is beaten in the West Final, I am picking them.
Straight-up: Winnipeg. Against the spread: Saskatchewan.
FILOSO: Despite how complete Saskatchewan’s roster is, Winnipeg playing at home is an advantage that cannot be overstated. With that said, that’s a silly spread as this will be a close contest.
Straight-up: Winnipeg. Against the spread: Saskatchewan.
GASSON: See the explanation in my East Final pick.
Straight-up: Winnipeg. Against the spread: Winnipeg.
GRANT: I really like how the Riders match up against the Bombers in that they’re one of the few teams who can make them one-dimensional. My only hesitation is knowing how hard it is to win in Winnipeg, but they’re 3-3 at home this season against playoff teams so there’s more vulnerability there than usual.
Straight-up: Saskatchewan. Against the spread: Saskatchewan.
HERRERA-VERGARA: The Riders have everything they need to finally get to the Grey Cup. The Riders’ run game can cause some serious damage with Ouellette and Armstead
Straight-up: Saskatchewan. Against the spread: Saskatchewan.
HODGE: The Riders shut down Brady Oliveira three times this season, so this one will likely come down to Zach Collaros. If he turns the ball over more than once, Saskatchewan’s got a great chance to win. If he doesn’t, Winnipeg goes back to a fifth straight Grey Cup.
Straight-up: Winnipeg. Against the spread: Saskatchewan.
HOSKINS: That is a crazy line when I think this game is a coin flip. Riders come in riding high off their last few games but Bombers know how to handle this pressure better than most. I’ll take the home team to set up the Grey Cup rematch
Straight-up: Winnipeg. Against the spread: Saskatchewan.
KLEIN: The Riders’ defence is a tough matchup for Collaros, who can get a little turnover happy when the calendar turns to November. This is going to be a close game all the way through, with Sasky avoiding the big mistake at the big time.
Straight-up: Saskatchewan. Against the spread: Saskatchewan.
TOTALS STRAIGHT-UP: Winnipeg 6, Saskatchewan 4
TOTALS AGAINST THE SPREAD: Saskatchewan 9, Winnipeg 1
Records to date (straight-up)
GRANT — 53-28-2
GASSON — 51-30-2
ABBOTT — 49-32-2
HERRERA-VERGARA — 49-32-2
HOSKINS — 49-32-2
FILOSO — 48-33-2
KLEIN — 47-34-2
DURRELL — 45-36-2
HODGE — 45-36-2
BALLANTINE — 37-44-2
Records to date (against the spread)
GRANT — 48-35
GASSON — 48-35
HODGE — 45-38
FILOSO — 44-39
HOSKINS — 42-41
HERRERA-VERGARA — 41-42
DURRELL — 41-42
ABBOTT — 40-43
KLEIN — 39-44
BALLANTINE — 32-51
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