Musk Says Jump, A Spending Bill Lands In The Trash and Johnson’s Gavel Is Again On The Line

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The biggest question to me about Trump II is where the administration will land on the spectrum of incompetence to malice. Based on this current preview, the New York Times needle is currently quivering over the red-hot incompetence zone.

This is a live question because Republicans under Donald Trump’s unified government will have more incentive to set aside their obstructionist instincts and cooperate than ever before; the party is much more MAGAfied than in 2017, with many of the reluctants and resisters forced out. If there’s one thing the conference’s rightward flank loves more than gunking up the gears of legislating, it’s performing fealty to Trump.

But Trump has to be actively engaged in governing to snap the foot soldiers into line. And as we’ve seen this past week, he continues to refuse to do that. Georgetown’s Matt Glassman put this well in his newsletter: “If he had just laid out his position at Thanksgiving — maybe ‘clean-ish CR, with disaster relief, with farm bill extension, etc.’ — the House GOP would have absolutely passed that bill and then Johnson and company could have negotiated a decent deal with the Senate and moved on.”

Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) also put it simply: “What does President Trump want Republicans to do: vote for the CR or shut down government? Absent direction, confusion reigns.”

This time, rather than his typical swooping in at the 11th hour to blow up the carefully crafted compromise of his own accord, “President-Elect Musk” forced Trump’s hand. Democrats’ gleeful goading of Trump as Musk’s puppet is the most energized I’ve seen them since the election.

Add to this stew that Trump, in a baffling turn of events, now wants the debt ceiling lifted — or even repealed altogether. It’s a bizarre request to tack on for a number of reasons. First, the only people who actually weaponize the debt ceiling are Republicans, and most only care about it when Democrats are in office. If Trump hadn’t called attention to it, Republicans would have lifted or suspended it as usual, with Democratic votes offsetting the Republican fiscal hawks. It’s Democrats who occasionally mutter about taking this weapon out of the GOP arsenal, only to drop the subject until the next clash.

This has caused bickering between Trump and aforementioned fiscal hawks, as the President-elect is now urging a primary against the “unpopular,” “weak” and “ineffective” Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX), who in the past has been a particularly loud voice against raising the debt limit (and who also, unforgivably, initially endorsed Ron DeSantis in the primary).

Many involved, including Trump, are also now venting their spleen at Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA).

“We’ll see. What they had yesterday was unacceptable,” Trump told NBC, referring to the original continuing resolution, when asked if he still had confidence in Johnson. “In many ways it was unacceptable. It’s a Democrat trap.”

Of course, it has to be at least a little friendly to Democrats by design; if some Republicans will never vote for anything but their dream hard-right spending bill, it paradoxically moves the bill to the left, as Johnson needs Democratic support to make up for it and get the bill through. This is a tale as old as time.

A handful of House Republicans are openly telling reporters that Johnson is losing their support, and Sens. Mike Lee (R-UT) and Rand Paul (R-KY) are sycophantically calling for Musk (who we’re watching discover how the government operates in real time) to be installed as speaker instead.

If Johnson manages to keep the government funded — his team is leaking news of a plan for a three-month extension, reportedly cutting measures like lowering prescription drug costs that had been included to keep Democrats on board — some of this furor might die down before the speaker elections on Jan. 3. Trump immediately endorsed the bill, though there’s still a Democratic Senate to contend with, even if it does pass through the House. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) called the “Trump-Musk-Johnson proposal” “laughable.”

Johnson may ultimately survive, not least, because, given the above, who the hell else would want this job?

One thing to keep in mind: If Johnson does win the election to retain his title for the incoming Congress, he’ll enjoy a degree of security neither he nor Kevin McCarthy before him ever had. The new rules package requires nine votes to trigger the motion to vacate, up significantly from the current one.