Vermont’s unemployment rate rose again to 2.4 percent in November

by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine The Vermont Department of Labor today reported that the seasonally adjusted statewide unemployment rate for November was 2.4 percent. This reflects an increase of one-tenth of one percentage point from the prior month’s revised estimate. All three major indices were negative. Vermont is tied for second lowest unemployment rate in the nation with North Dakota. South Dakota is lowest at 1.9% and Nevada is highest at 5.7%. The state civilian labor force participation rate was 65.5 percent in November, a decrease of one-tenth of one percentage point from the prior month’s revised estimate.

The comparable United States rate in November was 4.2 percent, an increase of one-tenth of one percentage point from the revised October estimate. 

Weekly unemployment claims in Vermont and across the US also unexpectedly fell during the chaotic holiday season, which sees rapidly moving hiring and firing events, which also coincides with the end of the construction season. 

In the week ending December 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims from the US Department of Labor was 220,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 242,000. The 4-week moving average was 225,500, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 224,250. Third quarter GDP also was revised higher.

See tables below.

“Vermont’s unemployment rate remains low at 2.4%, reflecting a tight labor market and ongoing opportunities for job seekers. As we all look ahead to 2025, it’s a great time to explore career paths and set professional goals for the new year. The recently released Vermont’s Most Promising Jobs brochure (https://mcclurevt.org/most-promising-jobs/) offers valuable insights on high-pay, high-demand job opportunities in Vermont.

The Vermont Department of Labor is here to support each person’s individual career journey with personalized one-on-one sessions to identify interests, address training needs, and connect people with employment opportunities. To learn more, visit http://labor.vermont.gov.” – Michael Harrington, Commissioner

The seasonally adjusted Vermont data for November show the Vermont civilian labor force decreased by 435 from the prior month’s revised estimate (see Table 1). The number of employed persons decreased by 744 and the number of unemployed persons increased by 309. The change to the unemployment rate was statistically significant in the seasonally adjusted series.

The November unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 2.1 percent in Burlington-South Burlington and White River Junction to 3.3 percent in Derby (note: local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally-adjusted – see Table 2). For comparison, the November unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 2.5 percent, an increase of six-tenths of one percentage point from the revised unadjusted October level and an increase of five-tenths of one percentage point from a year ago.

Seasonally Adjusted (Table 3)

The seasonally adjusted data for November reported a decrease of 1,100 jobs from the revised October data. There was a decrease of 1,000 jobs between the preliminary and the revised October estimates due to the inclusion of more data. The seasonally adjusted over-the-month changes in November varied at the industry level. The industry with a notable increase was State Government (+200 jobs or +1.0%). The industries with a notable decrease were: Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing (-300 jobs or -2.6%), Accommodation & Food Services (-700 jobs or -2.2%), and Administrative & Waste Services (-200 jobs or -1.5%).

Not-Seasonally-Adjusted (Table 4)

The preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ jobs estimates for November showed a decrease of 2,400 jobs when compared to the revised October numbers. As with the seasonally adjusted data, this over-the-month change is from the revised October numbers which experienced a decrease of 800 jobs from the preliminary estimates. The broader economic picture can be seen by focusing on the over-the-year changes in this data series. As detailed in the preliminary not-seasonally adjusted

November data, Total Private industries increased by 2,200 jobs (+0.9%) over the year and Government (including public education) employment increased by 2,100 jobs (+3.7%) in the past year.

The Service industry accounted for the most claims last week with 38%, unchanged. Manufacturing accounted for 11% of claims, down from 14%. Construction claims are peaking at 36%, up from 32% the week before, which accounted for the outdoor building season winding down. 

For the week, total unemployment insurance claims were 3,048 for the week (down 246 for the week and up 132 from this time last year). 

Meanwhile the Vermont Unemployment Trust Fund is well capitalized. As of last week, there was $310.8 million in the Trust Fund, down $1.2 million (as claims are paid out on one side, employers are contributing to the fund on the other). The pre-pandemic Trust Fund balance on March 1, 2020, was $506.2 million. 

The Unemployment and Jobs Report for December is scheduled to be released on Tuesday, January 28, 2025, at 10:00 a.m.

Last Modified Date: December 20, 2024

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