In a pivotal shift in Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party (SP) is spearheading the opposition INDIA bloc’s charge in the politically significant state, which sends 80 MPs—the most of any state—to the Lok Sabha. As of 3 pm, the SP was leading in 35 seats, closely followed by the BJP in 34. This marks a potential best-ever performance for the SP in a UP Lok Sabha election, surpassing its 2004 record of 36 seats during the Congress-led UPA’s victory.
SP leader Akhilesh Yadav has all but claimed victory in his family stronghold of Kannauj, leading by nearly 3.5 lakh votes over Imran Bin Zafar from Mayawati’s BSP, with BJP’s Subrat Pathak trailing by over one lakh votes.
The 2019 Lok Sabha election saw the BJP secure 62 of UP’s 80 seats, with ally Apna Dal (Sonelal) winning another two, while the SP managed only five. This was consistent with the 2014 election, where the SP also won five seats, down from 23 in 2009.
The Congress is currently leading in seven seats, including the traditional strongholds of Amethi and Raebareli. Rahul Gandhi leads in Raebareli by 3.3 lakh votes against BJP’s Dinesh Pratap Singh, while Kishori Lal leads in Amethi by over 1.1 lakh votes, potentially reclaiming a seat held by ex-Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi from 1981 to 1991.
The Samajwadi Party’s resurgence is significant, given the BJP’s dominance in the 2022 Assembly election, where it won 255 of 417 seats. The SP was the closest rival, securing 111 seats, a significant increase driven largely by the farmers’ protests against the BJP’s policies.
This momentum appears to have carried into the current election. Exit polls had largely predicted a continued BJP dominance, with projections of up to 68 seats for the BJP and its allies, and only 12 for the INDIA bloc. However, TV5 Telugu’s prediction of a narrow majority for the opposition group with 43 seats appears closer to the current trends.
The Samajwadi Party, part of the Congress-led INDIA opposition bloc formed last year, fielded 63 candidates, while Congress fielded 17. This seat-sharing deal marked a significant cooperative effort within the bloc, which has faced challenges in other states.
Despite exit polls suggesting the BJP-led NDA could secure up to 401 seats nationally, the INDIA bloc remains optimistic. Congress leaders Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi have insisted the group will win 295 seats, though exit polls predict a range of outcomes, with some forecasting over 150 seats for the bloc.
As the results unfold, the BJP appears on track to meet its internal target of 370 seats, edging closer to its ambitious “abki baar, 400 paar” goal.
