Many Australians will be weathering cold winter nights well into July before rising daytime temperatures bring averages up, after parts of the country’s east coast faced their coldest start to the season in decades.
Melbourne is forecast to record its coldest day yet this year on Wednesday, with residents expected to wake up to a brisk 1C morning, followed by a string of sub-4C overnight temperatures.
However, the high pressure systems should also see recent milder daytime temperatures continue into July. Brisbane on Sunday enjoyed its warmest June day since 2016, with the temperature climbing to 27C.
“We’re expecting high pressure to be dominant across the south still for the next month or two, so that pattern can happen where you’ll get colder nights but milder or warmer days,” said Weatherzone meteorologist James Rout.
“High pressure over the south will continue to suppress rainfall, but not completely cut it off, and it will also make the days a bit warmer and the nights a bit cooler, and help rainfall over eastern parts of Queensland and New South Wales,” Rout said.
Overall, rainfall totals across the country were 9.2% above their June average according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
Sydney soaked up its average yearly total rainfall of 1210mm in just the first six months of 2024, after June saw some suburbs face as much as 159.5mm of rain in a single day.
While rainfall is expected to ease in July, the likely formation of a La Niña in late spring could mean a wet end to the year.
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“Potentially 50% above [average], maybe even double … that’s definitely possible,” Rout said.
An exceptionally strong high pressure system is forecast to settle over Tasmania this week, potentially breaking the Australian record for mean sea level pressure of 1044.3 hPa, observed over Launceston in 1967.
But Tasmania, Victoria, South Australia, and parts of Western Australia can expect low autumn rainfall to continue into winter as more high pressure systems lock moisture out of the south of the country.
