Burton: Canada’s top soldier must protect Arctic from China

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Canada’s freshly appointed armed forces chief, Gen. Jennie Carignan, is starting her new job at a time when the country’s vulnerability is alarming.

An urgent issue for Carignan is revisiting how our resource-starved military can address legitimate threats to Canadian sovereignty, starting with China’s clear desire to exert control over mineral-rich Arctic regions, much as it has overrun international shipping lanes in the South China Sea.

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The federal government’s new defence strategy warns that China is already “exploring Arctic waters and the sea floor, probing our infrastructure, and collecting intelligence.” It also acknowledges Russia’s robust Northern Fleet, with its armada of submarines and two-thirds of Moscow’s naval nuclear strike capabilities. It also has the world’s largest icebreaker fleet.

China, which calls itself a “near-Arctic state,” has two medium-strength icebreakers and a larger, more powerful one under construction.

Russia, which conducted joint military exercises with China last summer off the Alaskan coast, continues building more northern military bases. Moscow is currently asking the United Nations to extend its claim to the Arctic seabed and move its territorial claim right up to Canada’s 200-mile economic zone.

When Moscow maintains a strong Arctic posture, Beijing benefits. And with Russian support, we should view a Chinese presence on Canada’s borders as inevitable.

Canada’s defence strategy, meantime, responds by calling for a network of northern operational support hubs, a fleet of early warning aircraft, underwater and coastal sensors, a high Arctic satellite station, and acquiring “up to” 12 under-ice submarines “to ensure our military has the tools to assert our sovereignty and protect Canada’s interests.”

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However, there is no plan in place to fund these aspirations. Ottawa says the next defence funding announcements will occur four years from now, with a “promise” of implementation by 2032.

Canada’s tattered credibility in terms of paying its promised share of defence costs had eyes rolling at the recent NATO summit, where scorn from our allies prompted vague Canadian promises of submarine purchases and other procurements.

Miserly defence spending has long defined federal governments, both Liberal and Conservative. Rather than point fingers, Canadians need to realize that these decisions by politicians really just reflect the tolerances, or desires, of voters.

As for our traditionally protective southern neighbour, regardless of how the U.S. political landscape plays out after Joe Biden’s withdrawal from this fall’s election, the days of America covering for Canada are gone. Republican policy prioritizing U.S. isolationism over international alliances reflects the sentiments of millions of Americans. The U.S. military presence around the world will henceforth be based on the costs — and benefits — to America.

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So when China or Russia encroach on Arctic regions that Canada has always claimed as sovereign territory — but where we have no physical presence — it is folly to expect Donald Trump to rescue us.

If, or when, Washington slashes its funding — which presently accounts for 68 per cent of NATO’s budget — it is plausible that Canada will not help European allies cover the shortfall.

Canada could begin salvaging its reputation as a responsible ally if we were seen as legitimately trying to make strenuous efforts to defend our sovereignty with advanced technologies and a highly skilled military. To that end, Gen. Carignan should essentially put Canada on a war footing by taking prominent measures to spotlight and confront our crises of recruitment shortfalls and chronic procurement delays.

Canada must show the world, including our allies, that we have the gumption to defend our borders by being militarily present in the North. We must equip ourselves to take action to counter aggressive Chinese expansionism and prevent Beijing and its subordinate partner, Russia, from controlling crucial shipping routes or gaining access to Canadian natural resources, critical minerals and energy sources.

This is not being hawkish, it’s being realistic. The alternative is clear. If we continue to be absent in the Arctic, we will lose it.

Charles Burton is a former diplomat at Canada’s embassy in Beijing, and a senior fellow at Sinopsis.cz, a global China-focused think-tank based in Europe.

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