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I assure Brett Maher is not going to miss a kick this

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5540dde277f0b7f3cd41a1ab8349215b I assure Brett Maher is not going to miss a kick this
Brett Maher

And, it’s no goodImage: AP

Dallas Cowboys kicker Brett “The Triple Menace” Maher was something however computerized throughout PATs throughout final Monday’s Wild Card Spherical victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That was the primary Cowboys’ playoff street win since 1992, however Maher actually didn’t assist. He went 1-for-5 on PAT makes an attempt, with zero factors added by way of discipline targets. It was such a horrendous efficiency, even Peyton Manning, who’s handled an “fool kicker” of his personal previously, needed to excuse himself to be able to comprehend the ineptitude he’d simply witnessed.

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Making the fallacious form of historical past

Maher had by no means had a recreation this unhealthy earlier than. In reality, nobody had. Within the historical past of the NFL, no participant had ever missed 4 or extra PATs. Hell, solely two individuals had ever gone 1-of-4 and solely six had ever gone 2-of-5. For Maher to expertise such a horrid efficiency within the playoffs nonetheless…that’s onerous to get better from. It was such an embarrassing efficiency that Dallas, regardless of claiming they wished to stay with Maher earlier than looking for outdoors choices, nonetheless felt the necessity to signal kicker Tristan Vizcaino to their observe squad…for precautionary measures after all.

Maher is actually on a really quick leash heading into Sunday’s recreation in opposition to the San Francisco 49ers. In reality, some sportsbooks have supplied a participant prop on whether or not or not Maher misses a PAT on this recreation. The chances? +325 for sure, which means a $100 wager would pay out $425 if Maher misses a kick. For a way horrible he was lower than per week in the past, many bettors might take into account this a surefire wager. Nonetheless, I’m right here to warn you of this line. That is undoubtedly a entice.

The opposite kickers who dwell in infamy

Within the historical past of the NFL, there have solely been 9 kickers, together with Maher, to overlook three or extra PATs in a single recreation. Solely two missed a PAT the next week — Rick Danmeier (1980) and Max Zendejas (1986) — and solely Bob Thomas (1985) missed a discipline objective of their subsequent recreation. Thomas went 5-for-5 on PATs and 3-for-4 on discipline targets although. I’d say he earned that miss. Regardless, in whole, following per week the place they missed three or extra further factors, kickers have gone 20-for-22 (90.91 p.c) on PATs and 15-for-16 on discipline targets (93.75 p.c). Maher had a nasty recreation, however that often means he’s in for one instantly after.

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Further, further

Now, to be honest, the additional level was made harder in 2015, after transferring the PAT again from the 2-yard line to the 15. And just one kicker has ever missed three or extra PATs in a single recreation from that distance — Matt Homosexual in 2019. He went 2-for-2 on PATs and 2-for-2 on discipline targets the next week, however that’s not a sufficiently big pattern dimension to make a judgment. So, let’s transfer to discipline targets. I perceive that discipline targets are more durable than further factors normally, and on common, they are usually longer than 32 yards (the anticipated distance of a PAT since 2015), however that simply goes to point out that if kickers who miss a bunch of discipline targets in a single recreation can bounce again the following week, then Maher must be anticipated to do the identical since PATs are simpler, proper?

Since 2015, there have been 19 situations the place a kicker has missed three or extra discipline targets in a single recreation. Surprisingly, solely Greg “The Leg” Zuerlein and Mason Crosby have had multiple of those video games. In seven of these situations, the kicker didn’t play one other recreation that 12 months (both it was the top of the season, the kicker went on IR for the rest of the 12 months, or they have been lower), so let’s remove these. Of the remaining 12 situations, the next week these kickers went a mixed 33-for-36 (91.67 p.c) on further factors and 20-for-25 (80 p.c) on discipline targets. Sure, each of these figures are under league common, however

  • At least they’re very near common, which means the kickers are returning to normalcy; and
  • The percentages are thrown off by 2015 Kyle Brindza, who went 2-for-3 on PATs and 1-for-3 on discipline targets only one week after going 0-for-1 on PATs and 1-for-4 on discipline targets. He was lower per week later. He solely performed 4 video games for his total profession. He wasn’t a confirmed veteran kicker like Maher or anyone else on this checklist is/was.

With out Brindza, the chances rise to 93.94 p.c on PATs and 86.36 p.c. The latter of which is greater than a full share level greater than the 2022 league common.

Might Maher miss one other kick this weekend? Completely. But when it does occur, I’d be prepared to wager will probably be as a result of a block by the 49ers’ particular groups unit quite than one other shanked alternative off Maher’s leg. Maher is knowledgeable, who has virtually assuredly encountered the yips earlier than. He overcame them then, and he’ll overcome them now. I nonetheless consider the Niners will win, however not as a result of Maher goes to overlook a bunch of kicks. I doubt he’ll miss any.

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